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Creating a reasonable list of med schools

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I've been looking at MSAR data for the last couple of hours. So at this point my head is spinning and I wonder how anyone can get into med school. What I thought were great stats (3.9 GPA 36 MCATS) seems to be just average or below average in a great number of schools. For example WashU median MCATs is 38 and GPA 3.9. So does that mean that WashU should not be on my son's list at all? Or would it just be considered a reach and he should still apply there? How does one go about making a reasonable list based on STATS only? What would be considered reaches and fits? I understand that there are no safeties. And how many of each should be on the list?

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